LOTTO 6aus49 Backtesting
Walk-forward validation against real history, so you can see exactly how the model performs versus pure chance.
Random vs. Statistical vs. AI-Assisted
All three methods compared directly, on the same historical draws. See at a glance whether the statistical or AI-assisted method actually beats pure chance — or does not.
Click "Run comparison" to test all three methods against each other.
What is being tested here?
A backtest asks exactly one question: would our model have done better than blind guessing in the past? It runs against real, already-drawn results — not a simulation.
1. Only ever see the past
For each historical draw the model gets only the draws before it. It never sees the result it is asked to predict — otherwise the whole exercise would be worthless.
2. Predict and count
The model produces a tip, we compare it with the actual result and count the matches. Repeated across hundreds of draws.
3. Measure against chance
A random tip runs through the identical test alongside it. Only if the model consistently beats chance is there anything to it.
The honest expectation: for 6aus49, about 0.73 matches per tip is mathematically normal — for any model and for pure chance alike. If both figures land close together, that confirms exactly what we say: draws are not predictable. That is why our model optimises split risk rather than hit rate — how many other players would hold the same tip.